![]() ![]() Cargo volume is down 6% to 7% year to date through August versus the same period in 2022, an improvement from the double-digit contraction at the start of the year. Still, the airfreight market is in a better spot now than 10 months ago. import tonnage from the Asia-Pacific, the United States’ largest air trade corridor, in August was below the rolling eight-year average, U.S. He attributed the recent jump in air cargo prices to seasonal increases that routinely occur between a slow August and September. “There’s more talk about will there be a peak than we see being materialized in volumes,” said Niall van de Wouw, Xeneta’s chief airfreight officer, on the latest Freight Buyers’ Club podcast. Delta Air Lines on Thursday reported a 36% drop, y/y, in third-quarter revenue. ![]() One airline executive in a private conversation expressed concern that market conditions weren’t improving relative to last fall, which represents a low bar since the downturn was gaining momentum then. The supply and demand rebalancing pushed up load factors by 2 points to 58%, but the fill rate for passenger bellies and freighter holds was still 2% less than before the COVID crisis. But yields are still about 25% higher than before the COVID crisis. Global rates are about 30% lower than a year ago after being 40% to 50% lower for many months. ![]() It said volumes were down 2% y/y, representing the smallest monthly decline this year. Figures from WorldACD, another data provider, tracked Xeneta with sequential volume growth of 3% and rates up 5%. The reduction in transport supply was the main reason for a 2% rise in rates from August, which accelerated 10% over the final three weeks of September and into October. Freighter utilization for dedicated cargo jets has improved in recent months but was 2% lower y/y in September, according to research by Fadi Chamoun at BMO Capital Markets. and China preventing both sides from granting full access to each other’s airlines.įewer flight hours for dedicated freighters reflect the weak demand and rising supply of passenger belly capacity. The Asia-Pacific is still heavily dependent on freighters because passenger flights have not recovered to pre-pandemic levels with the slow travel recovery in China and strained relations between the U.S. Meanwhile, cargo capacity in September grew at the slowest pace in 11 months as passenger airlines entered the shoulder season and pulled flights from the market to match lower travel interest, but it is still about 10% more than a year ago.Ĭapacity numbers can be misleading because passenger aircraft aren’t always on routes needed by shippers. But demand didn’t budge from the September 2022 level, when cargo bookings were quickly sinking. Xeneta reported global demand increased 6% month over month. Taken together, growth for the month was essentially zero.Īnd it didn’t change in September. Market intelligence firm Xeneta previously reported airfreight demand was negative 1% in August. A more complete analysis, taking into account different methodologies and IATA’s distance multiplier on tonnage, indicates the industry’s economic cycle has hit bottom. Many media outlets jumped on the International Air Transport Association’s recent announcement that air cargo traffic grew 1.5% in August - the first year-over-year (y/y) gain in 19 months - as a sign of a turnaround. More industry experts now say real growth in the air cargo sector is still a year away. The market is essentially flat versus an anemic final stretch in 2022, according to the latest data.Īnd with no signs of a demand push as consumer finances get squeezed, analysts remain bearish about prospects for a traditional shipping peak leading up to the holiday season. Newfound optimism is tempered by the fact that growth has more to do with normal seasonal patterns than a fundamental shift in demand. (Photo: Shutterstock/Benthemouse)Īir logistics stakeholders may want to pump the brakes on celebrations of shipping volumes and rates finally climbing from the depths of a prolonged downturn. Cargo jets are parked in a row at East Midlands Airport in England on Feb. ![]()
0 Comments
Leave a Reply. |
AuthorWrite something about yourself. No need to be fancy, just an overview. ArchivesCategories |